This repository contains the GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) files developed for my Master's thesis "Impact of Global Crude Oil Price Shocks on Indonesia Economy - a CGE Analysis" at Corvinus University of Budapest (2020).
These models implement a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework to analyze how fluctuations in global crude oil prices affect various sectors of the Indonesian economy. The research question explores whether Indonesia, historically an oil-exporting country transitioning toward becoming a net importer, benefits or suffers from oil price shocks.
- Standard CGE model implementation following Hosoe et al. (2010). Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling
- Indonesia Input-Output table (2010) processing and sector aggregation
- Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) construction with row-sum and column-sum equality rules
- Three simulation scenarios examining a 30% reduction in crude oil prices:
- Scenario A: Two-price effect
- Scenario B: Export-focused impact
- Scenario C: Import-focused impact
Indonesia generally benefits from lower global oil prices due to complex sectoral interactions, particularly in the processing industry and transportation sectors.
These files represent my learning journey with CGE modeling and GAMS programming. The thesis and models are shared for educational purposes and contain areas for improvement that were noted during examination. Feel free to explore, learn from, and build upon this work while acknowledging its academic limitations.
The complete Master's thesis is available on ResearchGate: Impact of Global Crude Oil Price Shocks on Indonesia Economy – A CGE Analysis
If you use or reference these models in your work, please cite: Prasojo, H. (2020). Impact of Global Crude Oil Price Shocks on Indonesia Economy - a CGE Analysis [Master's thesis, Corvinus University of Budapest].